Morocco’s neighbor to the north could be looking at an extended period of political gridlock as a result of what had been expected to be a mandate for the reactionary right, but ended up as a stalemate which will most likely stall any major legislation coming down the pike, thus stifling efforts at meaningful reform in either direction.
Back in May, polling indicated that the right-wing PP (Partido Popular) and ultra-nationalist, far-right VOX would have no trouble forming a coalition which would encapsulate more than 50% of the 176 seats in government necessary to govern with genuine legislative authority. However, despite the fact that yesterday’s “snap” reboot ordered by President Pedro Sanchez was viewed as a gamble, as the date drew near, the opinion gap narrowed and the risk paid off.
Though PP did draw the highest percentage of votes—with just over 33% compared to Sanchez’ PSOE (Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party) tallies just shy of 32%–the reactionary (some might say fascist) VOX only garnered 12.4% of the vote, besting the far-left SUMAR by less than a tenth of a percentage point. This resulted in the obvious failure of the right wing to secure a majority, with just over 45% of the total number of seats up for grabs. Over 99% of votes had been counted as of midnight.
While PP leader Alberto Nunez Feijoo technically bested Sanchez, Spain’s future is far from clear. According to El Pais, Feijoo indicated that he was “very proud” of the fact that his party’s vote share increased from 21% to 33%.
Sanchez declared what could be argued as a moral victory, elated to have avoided what all signs two months ago pointed to as an inevitable bloodbath. In the end, the assurances which he extended in pro-independence areas (i.e., Catalunya, the Basque Country, and to a lesser extent, Galicia) helped to mitigate the vote profile, as the conservative platform in Spain has never historically been a friend of any regional pro-independence or secessionist movement.
What was seen in Spain is typical of the left-right, urban-rural split in most Western democracies. If one were to take a look at the voting pattern across Spain on a visual graphic, it would at first seem to defy logic as to how the left-of-center coalition received anywhere close to the 40-percent-plus popularity which indeed it did. Yet, as in the United States, the urban centers, though geographically tiny, pack a proportional punch in terms of voting power.
As is the case all over the world, rural areas tend to house arguably more “traditional,” or conservative values, and urban centers generally attract more “progressive,” or liberal thought.
It could be weeks before the nation’s path becomes more clear, with inter-party negotiations and meetings involving King Felipe VI to look forward to.
A PP spokesperson indicated that Sanchez is the first person Feijoo will call, to ask him to agree to support the PP in forming a unitary government with specific stipulations, a request to which Sanchez is unlikely to agree.
As the leader of the party that won the vote count, Feijoo will be invited by the king to attempt to form a government. If Feijoo declines on the basis that he cannot muster sufficient support—as was the case when former PP leader Mariano Rajoy did so in similar fashion eight years ago—the king may tap Sanchez, according to the BBC.
Some political analysts argue that infighting between moderate and extreme factions of the right wing inhibited solidarity and contributed to the right’s relatively lackluster showing. Vox leader Santiago Abascal complained, for example, that the mainstream right had not sufficiently defended Vox against the demonization of the party by the PSOE-Sumar bloc.
“We have not achieved our objectives to kick Pedro Sanchez out…There will probably be another election where we can make this happen,” said a disappointed Abascal, whose party platform of anti-feminism and anti-immigration has been echoed by similar xenophobic and populist sentiment across the European continent.
The PSOE-Sumar coalition appeared to be the more satisfied of the two based on the results. “The reactionary bloc of regression, which set out a complete reversal of all the advances that we’ve achieved over the past four years, has failed” Sanchez told supporters.
In terms of implications for Morocco, Sanchez’ and Sumar’s success in preventing a fully-functioning right-wing coalition is probably good news for the Kingdom in terms of its sovereignty over the Sahara.
Despite Sanchez’ clear prioritization of amicable relations with Morocco, some news outlets have expressed stupefying naivete in their estimation that a Spanish shift to the right would have a negligible effect on Moroccan interests, as the PP and VOX have as of late clearly engaged in hostile and defamatory propagandizing against its neighbor to the south.