Carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions worldwide from road transportation are expected to peak this year, far earlier than previously projected to peak in 2050, according to a report by US think tank the International Council on Clean Transportation (ICCT).
The anticipated earlier time frame is due to the rapid adoption of electric vehicles (EVs) and the implementation of carbon-focused regulations.
According to the ICCT, road transportation emissions could reach a high of approximately nine gigatons in 2025.
However, the ICCT warned that weakening decarbonization policies could delay the transition to electrification. The organization cited the European Union where climate measures are being challenged over their cost and complexity.
In a scenario outlined by the ICCT in 2021 and reiterated in its latest report, significant emission reductions are expected after 2050. The report attributes this shift to policies mandating a larger share of EVs in new car sales and the growing affordability of electric technology, which has spurred market adoption.
The ICCT noted that emission declines in key car markets—China, the United States, and the European Union—could offset rising emissions in other parts of the world, particularly in Asia.
The ICCT’s calculations account for all greenhouse gases from vehicles, factoring in emissions from production to on-road usage.