Morocco’s Statistics and Forecasts Office (HCP) presented on Tuesday, at its headquarters in Rabat, updated Morocco’s official population. As of September 1, 2024, the population of the Kingdom stands at 36.828,330, reflecting an increase of over 2,98 million people compared to the 2014 census.
However, this growth is accompanied by a noticeable slump in the annual average growth rate, which has declined to 0.85%, significantly lower than the 1.25% recorded between 2004 and 2014.
This demographic growth is primarily driven by the urban population, which grew from over 20.43 million in 2014 to over 23.11 million in 2024, registering an annual growth rate of 1.24%. In contrast, rural areas have seen moderate progress, with the population increasing from over 13.41 million to 13.71, at a much lower annual growth rate of 0.22%.
The spatial distribution of the population highlights that 71.2% of Morocco’s inhabitants are concentrated in five regions, each exceeding four million residents. The Casablanca-Settat region leads with 7.68 million people, followed by Rabat-Salé-Kénitra (5.13 million), Marrakech-Safi (4.89 million), Fès-Meknès (4.46 million), and Tanger-Tétouan-Al Hoceima (4.03 million). The remaining regions have smaller populations, ranging from 3.02 million in Souss-Massa to 219,965 in Dakhla-Oued Ed-Dahab.
Aging Population and Shifting Age Structure
The changes in fertility rates and population growth have reshaped Morocco’s age structure, with a decline in the share of youth and an accelerated aging process. The proportion of individuals under 15 years decreased from 28.2% in 2014 to 26.5% in 2024. Meanwhile, the share of the working-age population (15–59 years) fell from 62.4% to 59.7%, while the percentage of people aged 60 years and over rose from 9.4% to 13.8%.
Morocco’s elderly population now stands at nearly 5 million, compared to 3.2 million in 2014, representing an annual growth rate of 4.6%, far exceeding the overall population growth. Of this group, 58.8% are under 70 years old, 28.3% are between 70 and 79, and 12.9% are aged 80 and over. This rapid aging poses critical challenges, particularly in healthcare, social protection, and the development of age-appropriate infrastructure.
Decline in Fertility Rates and Demographic Transition
The slowdown in population growth is largely due to a continuous decline in fertility rates. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR), measured as the average number of children per woman, fell from 2.5 in 2004 to 2.2 in 2014 and now stands at 1.97 in 2024. This figure has dropped below the 2.1 replacement threshold needed to sustain generational balance.
Both urban and rural areas are experiencing declining fertility. In urban areas, the average number of children per woman decreased to 1.77 in 2024, down from 2.01 in 2014. In rural areas, the fertility rate fell from 2.55 to 2.37 during the same period.
Regionally, fertility remains above replacement levels in Drâa-Tafilalet (2.35), Dakhla-Oued Ed-Dahab (2.25), Laâyoune-Sakia El Hamra (2.17), and Marrakech-Safi (2.13). In contrast, other regions such as the Oriental region (1.73), Souss-Massa (1.89), and Casablanca-Settat (1.90) report fertility rates below replacement levels, reflecting an advanced demographic transition.
This decline also mirrors shifting societal trends, particularly in marriage and family planning. While the average age for women at first marriage has slightly decreased from 25.7 years to 24.6 years, the use of contraceptives has expanded significantly. Additionally, the phenomenon of definitive celibacy by age 55 has increased, reaching 9.4% in 2024, compared to 5.9% in 2014.
Improvements in Education and Human Capital
Amid these demographic shifts, Morocco has made continuous progress in education, strengthening its human capital. During the 2023-2024 academic year, the national preschool enrollment rate for children aged 4 to 5 reached 62.7%, with rates of 66.8% in urban areas and 56.9% in rural areas. Gender parity has been achieved, with 62.5% of boys and 63.0% of girls enrolled.
For children aged 6 to 11, the national school enrollment rate rose from 94.5% in 2014 to 95.8% in 2024. This improvement is particularly significant in rural areas, where the rate increased from 91.4% to 95.1%, and among girls, where it grew from 93.9% to 95.9%.
Among children aged 12 to 14, the national school enrollment rate saw a sharp increase, rising from 84.1% in 2014 to 92.8% in 2024. Rural areas witnessed the most notable progress, with rates increasing from 72.3% to 87.9%, while urban areas improved from 93.4% to 96.1%. Gender equality in education is now nearly achieved, with 93.4% of boys and 92.1% of girls in this age group enrolled in school.
The data presented today underscores Morocco’s ongoing demographic transition and its implications for human capital development. While population growth slows and aging accelerates, investments in education and family planning have contributed to a stronger, more equitable foundation for future generations.