As Syrian Rebels’ Gain Ground, Is the Balance of Power Shifting?

At a crucial moment in the 13-year-long Syrian civil war, the foreign ministers of Türkiye, Iran, and Russia are scheduled to meet in Doha on Saturday to discuss the rapid advance of Syrian rebels. The surprise advances by the Syrian rebels have sent shockwaves throughout the region. Led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) the rebels have captured key territories, including the city of Aleppo, once Syria’s largest city, in operations they dubbed “Deter the Aggression,” and are now pushing southward towards the central city of Hama, Reuters reported.
The escalating violence and the rebels’ significant gains pose new challenges for the Assad regime, which has relied heavily on the support of Russia and Iran to regain control of the country after years of intense fighting. The talks between the three foreign ministers are expected to focus on these developments and the broader implications for Syria’s future, as well as the humanitarian crisis unfolding amid the continued fighting.
The meeting, which will take place within the framework of the Astana peace process, underscores the shifting power dynamics in Syria. Türkiye has long been a key backer of the opposition forces, while Russia and Iran have provided military and political support to Assad. As the rebel forces push deeper into Assad-held territories, including Hama, they are creating new challenges for the Assad regime and its allies.
The situation is growing increasingly complicated as the rebels, especially HTS, seek to assert their dominance not only in the northwestern Idlib region but also in areas previously thought to be firmly under Assad’s control. The swift advance of the rebels has raised questions about the future of the Syrian government and the possibility of a new phase in the conflict that could lead to even more instability in the region.
During talks with his Iranian counterpart Abbas Araqchi, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said that a new initiative would be launched to revive the Astana peace process. This renewed effort comes as tensions rise between Türkiye and Assad’s government.
Türkiye has called for a political solution that includes the involvement of all Syrian stakeholders, calling for a stable and secure Syria, free from the threat of violent extremism and further refugee flows into neighboring countries.
As the conflict intensifies, the humanitarian crisis grows. Thousands of civilians have fled the central city of Homs, as rebel forces continue to push further south. The rapid advance of the rebels has disrupted the lives of millions of Syrians, and concerns are growing about the future of displaced people and the possibility of new refugee flows toward neighboring countries, especially Türkiye.
Türkiye already hosts millions of Syrian refugees and is increasingly concerned about the humanitarian impact of the conflict and the potential for a new wave of immigration.
Since November 27, HTS and its allies have gained significant ground, capturing Aleppo, Hama, and advancing towards Homs. These are some of the most significant territorial gains for the rebels in years, and they come after a prolonged period of relative stagnation in the war. For much of the last few years, the frontlines had been frozen, with neither side making substantial advances.
However, the current offensive is shaking the foundations of the Assad regime, which had previously managed to regain control over most of the country with the help of its allies, including Russia, Iran, and Hezbollah.
The rebels, led by HTS, have capitalized on recent geopolitical shifts and the reduced involvement of Assad’s key allies in Syria. Russia, for instance, has been increasingly focused on Ukraine, which has diverted its military resources and attention away from Syria.
Similarly, Hezbollah, which has been one of Assad’s most important military allies, has suffered significant losses, including the deaths of key leaders, and it is now facing a leadership vacuum. These diversions have created a window of opportunity for the rebels to strike.
Abu Mohammed al-Golani, the leader of HTS, spoke with CNN recently about his group’s objectives and vision for Syria. Golani, who previously led the group under the name Nusra Front, distanced himself from the group’s al-Qaeda roots in 2016, seeking to rebrand HTS as a more pragmatic and moderate force.
According to Golani, HTS aims to restore Syria by creating a stable governance structure and facilitating the return of refugees from Lebanon and Europe. This marks a significant shift in HTS’s messaging, as it seeks to present itself as a force capable of rebuilding the country rather than just focusing on the removal of Assad.
HTS’s advances, particularly in Aleppo, have drawn attention not only for their military success but also for the group’s efforts to reassure the population. In Aleppo, HTS fighters have been photographed interacting with civilians, ensuring that local businesses are up and running, and providing basic services like electricity and water.
Despite this, the group’s record of brutality in previous years, including its affiliation with Al-Qaeda, continues to raise concerns among local populations, especially the ethnic and religious minorities who have long feared that an Islamist regime could strip them of their rights.
As rebel forces push south, the city of Homs has become a key battleground. The city is a vital link between Damascus and Syria’s coastal areas, where Assad’s Alawite sect, the president’s religious community, holds significant power.
Homs is strategically located along the M5 highway, which connects Damascus to the coastal cities of Latakia and Tartus. If the rebels manage to capture Homs, it would sever this critical supply route and significantly weaken Assad’s hold on the country. The city’s proximity to the Mediterranean coast makes it an even more significant target, as it could also threaten Russia’s military presence in the region, including its naval base in Tartus.
In response to the rebels’ swift advance, the Syrian government has been scrambling to reinforce its positions. Russian airstrikes have targeted key infrastructure, including bridges and roads, to slow the rebel advance.
A Syrian army officer confirmed that Russian bombers had destroyed the Rustan bridge, one of the main routes to Homs, to prevent rebels from using it to gain further ground. Meanwhile, Assad’s forces are reinforcing their positions in and around Homs, preparing for an intense battle to hold the city.
Despite the government’s efforts, the speed and success of the rebel offensive suggest that the balance of power in Syria could be shifting. The rebels’ ability to capture key cities in such a short time is a testament to their military strength and the vulnerabilities of Assad’s regime. As the rebels continue to press south, the Syrian government is facing increasing pressure to maintain control over key areas of the country.
The ongoing conflict in Syria has drawn in multiple foreign powers, each with its own interests and alliances. Türkiye, a NATO member, has been one of the strongest supporters of the opposition forces, providing them with both military and humanitarian assistance.
Türkiye has also played a key role in facilitating the Astana peace process, which brings together various stakeholders, including Russia and Iran, to discuss Syria’s future. However, Türkiye’s position has become increasingly complicated as the rebels it supports move further into government-held territories. The potential for further instability in Syria poses a direct threat to Türkiye, particularly in terms of the refugee crisis and the risk of ISIS or other extremist groups gaining a foothold in the region.
Russia and Iran have long been the primary backers of Assad’s regime. Russia’s intervention in 2015 provided the regime with the military support it needed to regain control over much of Syria. In exchange, Russia secured a strategic military presence in Syria, including air and naval bases.
Iran, through its support of Hezbollah and other militia groups, has also played a crucial role in bolstering Assad’s forces. However, both Russia and Iran are now dealing with external challenges that limit their capacity to focus on Syria.
The shifting dynamics between these powers are crucial to understanding the current situation. While Türkiye supports the opposition and calls for a political solution, Russia and Iran are primarily focused on maintaining Assad’s rule, which they see as crucial to their strategic interests in the region.
The outcome of the upcoming talks in Doha could have significant implications for the future of Syria, as the three powers will likely have to confront these conflicting goals and interests.
The roots of the Syrian civil war trace back to 2011 when protests erupted against President Bashar al-Assad’s regime as part of the wider Arab Spring movement. The government’s violent crackdown on peaceful demonstrators led to escalating violence, and by 2012, the conflict had evolved into a full-scale civil war. The war has since involved numerous local, regional, and international actors, including Sunni and Shiite factions, Kurdish forces, ISIS, and various foreign powers.
The rebels in Syria initially consisted of a mix of secular and Islamist factions, but over time, more radical groups, including HTS, have emerged as key players. HTS, originally part of Al-Qaeda, broke away in 2016 and has since rebranded itself as a more moderate alternative, although its ideology remains rooted in extremism. The group has received backing from Türkiye, while other factions have received support from Western countries and Gulf states.