France’s minority government, led by Prime Minister Michel Barnier, is teetering on the edge of collapse as it faces a near-certain defeat in a no-confidence vote on Wednesday.
If the party is outvoted, this will be the first French government ousted by such a motion since 1962, plunging the European Union’s second-largest economy stream into an intense political crisis.
The no-confidence vote comes after Barnier invoked Article 49.3 of the French Constitution on Monday to bypass parliamentary approval for his controversial 2025 budget, which aims to reduce the public-sector deficit from 6.1% of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) to 5%.
The budget includes EUR 60 billion in tax hikes and spending cuts but has faced fierce opposition from both ends of the political spectrum, the Guardian reported.
The far-right National Rally (RN), led by Marine Le Pen, and the left-leaning New Popular Front (NFP) alliance, spearheaded by Unbowed France (LFI), have united against the government, ensuring they have enough votes to topple Barnier.
Le Pen described the budget as “dangerous, unfair, and punitive” and argued that blocking it wasis the only constitutional way to protect the French people.
Le Pen’s decision to align with the far-left NFP is a strategic gamble for the RN. While polls suggest most of her supporters back the move to oust Barnier, this alignment could alienate moderate conservatives. Meanwhile, Le Pen faces her own political uncertainties, including a pending judgment in March on allegations of misusing EU funds, which could jeopardize her eligibility for the 2027 presidential election.
On the brink of collapse
In a televised address on Tuesday, Barnier warned of the significant risks to France’s economic and social stability if the government falls.
“The moment is serious. It is difficult, but the stakes are not impossible,” he said. “For the country to regain political stability, I should remain in office.” Interior Minister Bruno Retailleau echoed this sentiment, accusing opposition parties of playing “Russian roulette” with France’s future.
The debate over the no-confidence motion is set to begin at 4 P.M. local time on Wednesday, with a vote expected roughly three hours later. President Emmanuel Macron, currently in Saudi Arabia, is returning to France for what media outlets have dubbed a “moment of truth,” amid fears of political and financial instability.
If the no-confidence motion succeeds, Barnier’s administration, in office for just three months, would be the shortest-lived government in the history of France’s Fifth Republic.
While Barnier would be required to resign, Macron could ask him to remain as caretaker prime minister until a new government is formed. However, the constitution prohibits dissolving parliament again within a year, meaning no new elections can occur before July 2025.
The domino effect
In such a scenario, a caretaker government could introduce emergency budget measures to roll over this year’s spending limits and tax provisions, avoiding an immediate US.S.-style government shutdown. However, political instability could have far-reaching consequences, including delays in EU policy-making and economic repercussions.
The budget crisis is emblematic of the challenges faced by Barnier since his appointment following snap elections in June, which resulted in a fragmented lower house. His conservative administration has been unable to secure a parliamentary majority, forcing compromises with opposition parties that have now turned against him.
Finance Minister Antoine Armand criticized the opposition’s actions, warning that unseating the government would harm the nation. “Blocking the budget will have damaging consequences for the French people,” he said, emphasizing the importance of fiscal responsibility in the current economic climate.
This unfolding political drama is predicted to exacerbate already high tensions in France, where public discontent over economic challenges and political gridlock has been simmering for months.