As drought continues to dash domestic production of wheat, Morocco is expected to import 7.5 million tons of wheat for the 2024-2025 season, a 20% increase over the previous year, according to Grain Brokers Australia‘s weekly market report. The significant rise is primarily due to the need to offset the impacts of a severe drought that has devastated cereal crops, reducing wheat production to 2.47 million tons, a 40.6% drop from 2023, and barley production to 650,000 tons, a 51.9% decline.
Wheat and barley yields are the lowest since the 2007-2008 and 2016-2017 seasons, respectively. Russia has increased its presence in the Moroccan market and could surpass France as the top exporter of soft wheat for the 2024-2025 season, according to international traders.
In the first four months of the season, Russia has already shipped nearly 400,000 tons of wheat, accounting for 80% of the total volume from the previous year, Grain Brokers Australia said.
Amid poor harvests in France in 2024 due to heavy rainfall, the country’s exports to Morocco, Algeria, and Tunisia are expected to drop significantly. Meanwhile, Russia is seeking to diversify its export markets and gain ground at the expense of its traditional competitors.
According to the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Foreign Agricultural Service (USDA), Morocco’s domestic wheat consumption is expected to rise due to population growth, increasing from 10 million tons in 2023-2024 to 10.1 million tons in 2024-2025. Over 98% of wheat demand in the Maghreb region is for food, seed, and industrial use, with animal feed making up a marginal share.
In 2023-2024, the European Union accounted for 73.5% of Morocco’s wheat imports. However, Russia’s growing influence in this key market signals a shift in the region’s trade dynamics.