As the final U.S. presidential election day approaches, analysts are exploring possible outcomes for the race between Republican candidate Donald Trump and Democratic candidate Kamala Harris, the current vice president.
Aaron Blake, a senior political analyst for The Washington Post, outlined seven scenarios, noting that polling averages in seven key swing states show a margin of two points or less. A slight shift in these states could lead to an Electoral College win for either candidate.
1. Harris’s Path via the ‘Blue Wall’
Harris currently holds a slight lead in four of seven swing states—Michigan, Nevada, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania—according to The Washington Post’s polling averages. This lead puts her on course for 276 electoral votes, exceeding the 270 required for victory.
To secure her win, Harris only needs three Northern “blue wall” states, a term for the 28 U.S. states and the District of Columbia that the Democratic Party won in every election from 1992 to 2012.
Blake pointed to demographic and racial factors as crucial to her potential success. A significant factor is whether Harris can secure votes from White and older voters, who typically favor Republicans, though Democrats have historically fared relatively well with them.
Some blue wall states, including Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, are older and whiter than other swing states and could be key to Harris’ victory.
2. Trump’s Path Through the East
Trump’s best chance of winning likely hinges on securing victories in three key states: Georgia, North Carolina, and Pennsylvania.
He currently holds a small lead in Georgia and is gaining momentum in North Carolina, while polls indicate a tie in Pennsylvania.
To achieve victory, Trump needs to attract more Black voters. Georgia and North Carolina have the largest Black populations among swing states, and the Pennsylvania electorate is also 10 percent Black.
Blake notes that Trump seems aware of the importance of Black support and has attempted to connect with Black men by drawing parallels to his legal troubles.
He has also targeted Harris, questioning her Black identity and claiming she only recently embraced it.
Ultimately, Trump’s strategy aims to maintain support in traditionally red states like Georgia and North Carolina while leveraging significant investments in Pennsylvania.
3. Trump’s Path Through the South
Another potential path for Trump centers on winning southern states along with a necessary victory in a northern state.
According to The Washington Post’s polling averages, Trump shows his best numbers in Sun Belt states, particularly Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina.
In this scenario, Trump needs to secure Nevada and at least one northern state to win the election.
The diverse electorate in the Sun Belt could work in his favor, as polling indicates stronger support among Black and Hispanic voters.
Trump may focus on key issues affecting southern states, such as rising housing costs and immigration.
He would need to win a northern state after gaining support in the South, with Wisconsin and Pennsylvania appearing to be his best options, according to Blake.
4. A Decisive Harris Victory
Blake suggests that Harris could win, given the close margins in swing states and her two-point national polling lead.
If she outperforms polls by about two points nationwide, she could secure victories in all seven swing states. Demographics, particularly female voters who support her stance on abortion rights, may also work to her advantage.
For a landslide win, Harris would need to expand her support in traditionally challenging states like Florida and Texas, which could solidify a decisive victory for the Democrats.
5. A Trump Landslide
In the 2016 presidential election, the likelihood of Trump achieving an overwhelming victory over Hillary Clinton was low. However, his popularity now exceeds that of both 2016 and 2020, suggesting that his victory may be more plausible.
Current polling averages show Harris with an advantage over Trump. However, Trump may see significant support from Black and Hispanic voters, particularly men, on election day.
A crucial factor in Trump’s potential victory is retrospective approval, which he understands well. In his public appearances, he often highlights his economic strategies during his presidency and evokes nostalgia for the pre-COVID economy.
Polling averages indicate that 51 percent of voters across the seven swing states approve of his presidency, a higher approval rating than during his term in office.
6. An uncertain outcome
An unexpected outcome could arise from a split between Northern and Sun Belt states. For example, Harris could lose a Northern state but win a Southern state like Nevada, while Trump might carry Arizona, Michigan, North Carolina, and Georgia.
7. Deadlock
A tie is even less likely than an unexpected split between the North and South, but it is still theoretically possible.
One scenario that could lead to a tie would be Harris winning Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin but losing other swing states and Nebraska’s 2nd district, where she currently leads, while Trump wins Pennsylvania, Michigan, and either North Carolina or Georgia without any additional swing states.
In this case, a “contingent election” would occur, with the House of Representatives deciding the president by state delegation. Republicans currently hold a delegation majority, giving them an advantage if this rare scenario unfolds.