The growth of Morocco’s economy is projected to slow to 2.8% in 2024, down from 3.4% in 2023, according to a statement issued Tuesday by the country’s central bank, Bank Al Maghreb.
The projected slowdown stems primarily from a 6.9% reduction in agricultural output, due to successive years of drought and water scarcity, key risks to Morocco’s economic outlook, according to the Bank.
Agricultural production remains crucial to the country’s growth, but Morocco’s reliance on rainfall leaves it vulnerable to increasingly volatile weather patterns.
Non-agricultural sectors, such as manufacturing, extractive industries, and tourism, however, are expected to remain resilient. Growth in these sectors is forecast to rise from 3.6% in 2023 to 3.9% in 2024, supported by a recovery in tourism-related activities and industry.
The central bank also offered a more optimistic outlook for 2025, projecting growth to accelerate to 4.4% as agricultural output is expected to rebound, assuming more favorable weather conditions.
The forecast assumes cereal production will reach 55 million quintals next year, a significant recovery from the current drought-induced lows.
Morocco’s 2024 slowdown comes at a time of broader global uncertainties. BAM flagged several international risks, including the war in Ukraine, geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, and the potential for economic fragmentation, all of which could weigh on the country’s medium-term growth prospects.
Despite the expected near-term slowdown, Morocco’s non-agricultural sectors are expected to remain a key driver of growth.