The Polisario Front is losing ground in its conflict with Morocco, a recent report from the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) in Pretoria, South Africa, revealed in a report published on Friday.
This shift, highlighting growing international support for Morocco’s Autonomy Plan for Sahara, showed the source.
The ISS report highlighted that “the biggest blow to the Polisario has been the recognition of Morocco’s Autonomy Plan by major global players.”
The study said that the United States acknowledged Morocco’s sovereignty over the Sahara in 2020, followed by Spain in 2022, adding that French President Emmanuel Macron most recently called Morocco’s plan the “only basis” for resolving the Sahara conflict.”
These developments have provoked the Polisario into resuming its armed struggle, according to the report.
Morocco, however, has successfully kept the Sahara issue off the African Union (AU) agenda, with senior AU advisers noting that it’s almost as if the issue “does not exist.”
The report also noted that support for the so-called “Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic” (SADR) within the AU “is eroding”, with many African nations reconsidering their stance.
Currently, 22 African states recognize the SADR, while others have withdrawn or frozen their recognition.
In contrast, 22 African countries have opened consulates in Morocco’s southern provinces, indicating support for Moroccan sovereignty.
Even within South Africa, a key supporter of the Polisario, government officials are reportedly losing faith in the movement’s cause.
The ISS report quotes officials acknowledging the growing support for Morocco’s claim to sovereignty and the Polisario’s failure to mobilize international grassroots support, unlike the ANC during apartheid or the Palestinians.
The Polisario’s own representative in South Africa, Mohamed Beisat, admitted the organization’s shortcomings in garnering widespread international support.
Meanwhile, Morocco continues to push its Autonomy Plan as the only viable solution, saying that the Polisario leaders do not represent the sahrawi population and that a referendum on independence is “unrealistic.”
As global support for Morocco’s Autonomy Plan grows, the UN’s call for a referendum is likely to face resistance from key Security Council members like France and the US.
The ISS report concluded that the dynamics of the Sahara conflict are shifting towards a final resolution that respects Morocco’s territorial integrity.