The long-standing dispute over the Moroccan Sahara is nearing resolution, according to a report published earlier this week by the “United States Institute of Peace,” a prominent American think tank.
The report asserts that the issue has “shifted toward a conclusion” following France’s recent recognition of Morocco’s sovereignty over the Sahara.
The report highlights how international recognition of Morocco’s sovereignty of the Sahara has gained substantial momentum in recent years. France’s decision to support Morocco marks a turning point in further strengthening Morocco’s position on the global stage.
The report suggests that these developments are likely to lead to increased autonomy for the Southern provinces under Moroccan sovereignty.
France’s recognition follows the 2020 proclamation by the US, which acknowledged Moroccan sovereignty over the entire Sahara. The US shift was hailed as a pivotal moment in the dispute, endorsing Morocco’s 2007 autonomy proposal as the “only basis for a just and lasting solution.”
Since the US’s proclamation, 37 other nations have followed suit, with France’s recent move widely seen as a decisive step.
“As the Maghreb’s most recent colonial power, France is arguably the region’s most influential foreign actor,” the report added, stressing that France’s decision to abandon its neutrality on the Sahara issue “reflects and strengthens a growing international consensus in support of Morocco’s sovereignty claims.”
The think tank’s report emphasizes that the resolution of the Moroccan Sahara issue could also pave the way for improved relations between Morocco and neighboring Algeria, which has long opposed Morocco’s autonomy.
The report notes that “ending a war that keeps so many stateless and living in squalor while also removing a major irritant to the Moroccan-Algerian relationship will improve regional stability.”
European resistance to Morocco’s autonomy has softened in recent years, driven in part by increasing trade relations between Europe and Morocco, as well as the United States’ precedent.
In addition, most Arab League and African Union member states have backed Morocco’s position, with influential global powers such as China, Russia, Turkey, Britain, and Italy maintaining official neutrality for now. However, the report questions how long these nations can remain on the sidelines.
“International momentum is entirely on Morocco’s side,” the report concludes. In the not-so-distant future, the debate over the Sahara territory “will be effectively finished, with only a handful of states continuing to argue for Sahrawi independence.”