With three months remaining before the U.S. Presidential election, Democratic nominee Kamala Harris has emerged with a lead over Republican challenger Donald Trump in three pivotal swing states: Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan.
Recent polling by the New York Times and Siena College, conducted from August 5 to August 9, shows Harris leading Trump by four percentage points. Harris has garnered 50% support compared to Trump’s 46% among 1,973 registered voters surveyed across these states.
The polls were taken during the week Harris announced Minnesota Governor Tim Walz as her vice-presidential running mate. The margin of error for the polls is ±4.8 percentage points in Michigan, ±4.2 points in Pennsylvania, and ±4.3 points in Wisconsin.
This development represents a notable shift from earlier polls, which had shown Trump either tied with or leading former Democratic candidate Joe Biden.
The shift follows Biden’s endorsement of Harris amid ongoing concerns about his cognitive health and suitability for office. With the election set for November 5, the dynamics could still change, but Harris’ campaign has gained momentum as Biden stepped back.
Harris has seen a significant boost in favorability, particularly in Pennsylvania, where her support has increased by 10 points.
Independent voters in the state view her as more intelligent and temperamentally suited for the presidency. Democrats are buoyed by this upswing, particularly in light of Biden’s decision to withdraw from the race.
The electoral college considers Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and Michigan critical for Harris to secure a White House victory.
Despite ongoing Republican criticism, Harris has seen a 27-point rise in voter satisfaction across these three Midwestern states since May.
Democrats face a challenge in effectively communicating Harris’s vision for the country.
A previous poll indicates that 60% of registered voters believe Trump has a clearer vision, compared to 53% for Harris.
Trump maintains an edge in handling economic and immigration issues, but Harris leads by 24 points on abortion—a key issue that Democrats hope will energize voters in battleground states like Arizona and Wisconsin.
Harris also holds a more favorable view on issues of democracy compared to Trump, who is facing legal challenges related to the 2020 election and the January 6 Capitol riot.