The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has reaffirmed its global growth forecast of 3.2% this year and 3.3% in 2025 in the latest edition of the World Economic Outlook, published on Tuesday.
The report identifies rising service prices as a significant challenge to achieving disinflation, which is further complicating the path toward the normalization of monetary policy.
The data indicates that the risk of accelerated inflation has grown. Consequently, interest rates may remain elevated for an extended period due to rising trade tensions and greater economic policy uncertainty.
The IMF highlights the need for a well-balanced combination of strategies to maintain price stability and reestablish depleted reserves.
Global economic activity and international trade showed signs of growth at the end of last year, driven by robust exports from Asia, particularly in the technology sector. A faster-than-expected slowdown in growth was observed in the US, following a prolonged period of high activity reflecting a moderation in consumption.
In Europe, the latest economic indicators suggest an uptick in activity, driven by an improvement in service sector performance.
In China, increased domestic consumption contributed to a robust economic performance in the first quarter, the report revealed.