Morocco’s wheat and barley production is expected to decline by 44.4% in 3rd quarter of 2024 and by 51% during the 2023/2024 agricultural season, Morocco’s Statistics and Forecasts Office (HCP) announced on Monday.
The Kingdom’s agricultural value added is estimated to decline by 4.9% in the third quarter of 2024, compared to an increase of 1.5% during the previous year, according to HCP estimates for the second and third quarters of 2024.
This negative performance is mainly due to the impact of severe drought on major crops.
Fruit and vegetable productivity will also decline due to the lack of rainfall, with notable decreases in the east and in the Haouz and Tadla regions, and most of the internal demand will be met by supply from the Saïs, western and northern regions.
However, overall crop price increases are not expected to be dramatic, despite a growing domestic supply deficit, thanks to increased reliance on imports.
During April and May 2024, imported barley and table oil are estimated to more than double respectively, while sugar purchases will rise by 1.6% year-on-year.
The livestock sector is expected to show some resilience during the second quarter of 2024, supported by public measures to mitigate the effects of drought and improved vegetation cover as a result of late spring rains.
However, domestic livestock numbers for slaughter will remain low, leading to higher red meat prices and a doubling of live animal imports.
The poultry sector is likely to continue to support livestock production, as the number of birds for slaughter should increase by 4%, in contrast to an estimated 14.9% decline during the same period last year.