Donald Trump became the first U.S. former president to be convicted of a felony, as the jury found him guilty on all 34 charges of the “hush money” trial, on Thursday.
Trump was found guilty of falsifying business records to hide the payment of $130,000 to bribe adult film star Stormy Daniels into silence, in the lead-up to his presidential election in 2016.
Throughout the trial, the former president continuously denied wrongdoing and is predicted to appeal the decision. It remains unknown whether the former president will be imprisoned as the judge has set the sentencing deliberation date for July 11. In the meantime, Trump is allowed to continue his political campaign.
The timing of the sentencing falls four days before the Republican National Convention, the event that sees the participation of delegates who will nominate the next president and vice president.
It is possible Trump could walk away with probation or a conditional discharge, as the minimum sentence for falsifying business records in the first degree is zero. On the other hand, he could receive up to four years for each offense. CBS detailed that Trump would likely be ordered to serve the prison time for each count meaning a maximum total of four years in jail.
In the extreme case of putting him behind bars, it would mean he could not continue campaigning. However, if he were sentenced to home detention, he would be monitored with an ankle bracelet and could continue virtually running for presidency.
Considering Trump’s presence in jail would mean high-level security and isolation from other inmates, Experts have proposed that home detention is quite a likely outcome.
Nobody knows exactly how the guilty verdict will impact Trump in his 2024 campaign, as this situation has never happened before. To date, the polls show he is almost neck and neck with President Joe Biden, with the current president having a slight edge in many key states that will dominate the election.
A survey found in April that 16% of Trump supporters said they would reconsider their vote if he was charged, an Ispos and ABC News report found. Those voters now have to decide whether the decision will sway their support or not.
Political experts have posed that even a slight dip in Trump’s support could be enough for Biden to secure his second term, especially if this shift occurred in key states like Wisconsin or Pennsylvania.
However, Trump advocates are renowned for their fierce and unwavering support, especially as they backed him through two impeachments, and stormed the Capitol in 2021. Therefore, the case against Trump may potentially just add fuel to their fire and fighting spirit.
Trump supporters are already noticeably enraged by the conviction and have overwhelmed pro-Trump websites calling for violent retribution and riots, Reuters reported. One supporter left a threatening comment about Juan Manuel Merchan, the judge of the hush money trial: “Someone in NY with nothing to lose needs to take care of Merchan,” the person wrote on “Patriots.”