Iran has been forced into turmoil following the unexpected death of President Ebrahim Raisi, in a helicopter accident on Sunday due to a “technical fault,” state media reported. Since then, Mohammad Mokhber has been appointed interim president by Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei.
Under the conditions in which Khamenei approved former Vice President Mokhber’s position, he stated there must be an election within 50 days, to appoint the next president of Iran. In addition, the country is now in a five-day mourning period for the late president and other helicopter passengers.
Analysts have already started looking at the likely outcome of the upcoming election, saying the situation’s urgency leaves less time to properly vet candidates leaving gaps for manipulation. A dramatic change in Iran’s political outlook is highly unlikely as Iran’s affairs are controlled by the Supreme Leader, making the president second in command.
Furthermore, the president of Iran can be overruled by the clerical establishment through the judiciary or the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).
The most likely candidate is believed to be interim President Mokhber, who was quoted as saying by state media: “We will follow the path of Raisi in doing the duties entrusted without any disruptions.”
In Iran, the vice president is appointed not elected. Mokhber was chosen by Raisi shortly after he took office in 2021. Back in 2010, he was sanctioned by the EU, because of his alleged involvement in Iran’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs. Two years later he was removed from the sanction list.
Mokhber was an appealing candidate to Raisi because he had strong ties with the office of the Supreme Leader, and the IRGC.
The Supreme Leader, along with Iran’s Interior Ministry and Guardian Council, vet all candidates. While reformists may apply for the presidency role, it is highly unlikely they will be selected. This is because of the Islamic law the country deems that only high-ranking Shia theologians are allowed to be considered.
The maximum a president can serve is two terms. Before Raisi’s passing, elections were scheduled for June 18, and a petition was circulating in Iran to call for public support for his continued candidacy.
The petition is inconsistent with the pushback during Raisi’s presidency such as the Women’s Life Freedom Movement in Iran against the strict enforcement of mandatory hijab and the violent treatment and accusations that women were murdered while detained.
Raisi was known for his deeply conservative approach and was viewed as a potential predecessor to the Supreme Leader. The late president was favored for his idea to support proxy forces across the Middle East.
Other conservatives such as the Combatant Clerical Association openly supported Raisi in serving a second term, prior to his recent passing.
In the last presidential elections, Iran had its lowest voter turnout on record with just under half of the country participating. Before the accident, hope was that the Supreme Leader would allow some moderate conservatives to enter parliament to form a weak minority against the hardline.