Following a constant first quarter, the World Bank (WB) is forecasting a 9% spike in Diammonium Phosphate (DAP) prices globally in 2024, rebounding from a 30% decrease the previous year, according to a recent report entitled “Commodity Market Outlook.”
The WB explained that the “export restrictions on phosphates from China and ammonia from Russia have negatively impacted global trade,” resulting in a significant price surge. However, Morocco has emerged as a major beneficiary of the markup, as the nation’s phosphates exports step in to fill the void left by China and Russia in the European market.
Europe has replaced imports from China and Russia with imports from other exporters, including Egypt (ammonia), Morocco (phosphates), according to the bank.
Russia is expected to reroute its exports from European markets to other key agricultural producers, including India and Brazil.
The Bank cautioned that “further trade restrictions and disruptions,” along with “higher ammonia and natural gas prices,” could drive up DAP prices.
Changes in the cost of phosphates are due to fluctuations in the price of natural gas, which is used for the production of ammonia. Ammonia is an essential component in phosphate fertilizer processing.