With regard to the upcoming U.S. presidential race, former President Donald Trump holds a lead in both the popular vote and in the Electoral College, based on Newsweek’s most recent survey conducted this past Saturday.
While recent national-and-state-level surveys show modest progress for Biden, the Democratic incumbent would be wise not assume the task against his Republican competitor to be a slam-dunk. Trump and Biden are divisive personalities, with surveys indicating that the majority of Americans view both candidates with negative net favorability ratings.
The Electoral College decides presidential elections, assigning a specific number of electoral votes to each state. A presidential candidate requires 270 electoral votes to secure the victory, and winning the national popular vote does not ensure success. In fact, since 2000, it indeed often has not.
Trump lost the popular vote in 2016, like previous President George W. Bush did in 2000. With most states trending either heavily Republican or solidly Democratic, the Electoral College provides just a few battleground states holding the key to determining the final winner.
The national polling average from FiveThirtyEight presently shows Trump with 41.7 percent support versus Biden’s 40.9 percent—a 0.8 percent edge for the former president. The average was last updated on Saturday. The Real Clear Polling average, which was last updated on April 22, shows Trump up by 0.3 percent—44.8 percent to 44.5 percent.
In general, political analysts believe that Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin will be significant battlegrounds in the 2024 presidential election. Trump and Biden are likely to spend a significant percentage of their campaign funds in these battleground states.
According to FiveThirtyEight’s average, Trump leads Biden in Arizona by 3.6 percentage points, 43.2 percent to 39.7 percent.
FiveThirtyEight reports that Biden lags behind Trump by an average of 6.3 points in Georgia. The Democrat currently garners 39.3 percent of Georgia voters’ support, compared to 45.6 percent for his Republican challenger.
Michigan voters prefer Trump by 3.2 percent, according to FiveThirtyEight’s average. Just under 43% of survey respondents indicated a preference for him, as opposed to just under 40% for Biden.
Although Nevada has supported Democratic presidential candidates in every election since 2008, the polling average presently favors Trump over Biden. The Republican comes in at 43.3% while Biden shows 37.2%.
According to the same source, Trump leads by 5.4 percentage points, 45.1 percent to 39.7 percent.
In Pennsylvania, Trump leads by an average of 1.1 percentage points, 43.0 percent to Biden’s 41.9 percent.
Trump leads Biden in Wisconsin by 1.2 percent (42.0 % compared to 40.8%).