A few days ago, the whole world sat quietly and watched a barrage of long-range missiles fired by Iran against Israeli targets. Some were terrified by the attack, thinking that Odin was blowing his World War III horn. Others were thrilled and in awe to see a Muslim country assaulting one of the mightiest armies in the globe, if we trust Israel’s armament statistics.
The long-running tension between Iran and Israel is no news. Top Iranian officials have made the headlines repeatedly while threatening to bomb Israel off the map. The Hebrew state has maliciously used its intelligence multiple times to stage and orchestrate assassinations of senior Iranian officials in foreign lands, sometimes without claiming responsibility for giving the execution order. The recent Israeli mortal airstrike against Iran’s consulate in Syria, which claimed the lives of senior members of the Shiite State’s Revolutionary Guard, was but an episode of a series of assaults signaling that the chain of events was set in motion a long time ago. Iran’s strong man Gen. Mohammad Reza Zahedi, who fell in Syria, brings to mind the killing of another senior military leader Qassim Suleimani, taken out by the same tactics.
What may seem to the average viewer as an almost head-on confrontation between Iran and Israel is now referred to by international media as “a shadowy war”. In actuality, no side would risk open war now and reveal whatever state-of-the-art weaponry and technology it has lurking in its vaults. So, instead, we are invited to an ever-lasting war dance, a “Haka”, by the two.
After the Israeli surprise air offensive on Iran’s property in Syria, which amounts to an actual attack on Iran as per the Geneva Convention which states that “the premises of the mission shall be inviolable,” Iran made a pitch to the United States to allow it to reciprocate the attack that killed at least a few of its nationals. Of course the asked permission had to take the form of a stern warning and a tone legitimizing the retaliatory threat. To save its face, the Iranian drone/missile attack was greenlighted and we were too flabbergasted to speak. The reason? According to what is known as the “law of retaliation”, the response should match in degree and kind the initial attack by an emboldened Israel.
However, minimum damage was inflicted on the arch enemy as the US and other allies joined hands to shoot down almost all missiles. It is as if I can hear the Hound (from Games of Thrones) saying “You are a talker…Listening to talkers makes me thirsty and hungry.”
And we were back to square one with Israel asking for its right to respond, in a very lame theatrical performance reserved for mindless viewers. Israel convened meeting after meeting, with more follow-up meetings, and tried to inflict its version of justice by, again, asking for the permission of America, the moderator of a phony Armageddon.
In reality, this exchange of fire between an established nuclear power and the main driver of the “axis of resistance” is very limited and low key. I can even venture and say that it serves the parties’ PR more than it deters any eventual threat, and anyone thinking that all is being downplayed can check high-resolution satellite and aerial images.
Iran has fought wars with neighboring Iraq for years and knows the devastation wars can bring, especially for an ascending power aspiring to close ranks with allies such as Russia and China. Why would it get involved in an uneven war and be in over its head while it has far-reaching tentacles that no one can trace back to the body, or let’s say to the mastermind?
Iran has a different strategy: the power of religion that brings people from different backgrounds together. The Shiite ideology has a significant unifying function and its clout has been growing for decades now. Enthusiastic Shiite adherents are fighting Iran’s war, by proxy, in Lebanon, Yemen, Iraq and Syria, sealing an undying allegiance to the Persian country.
As for the west-backed Israel, it has a Mossad well-crafted strategy of assassinations to remove any potential threats, be it generals or nuclear scientists. Besides, the country prides itself on its cutting-edge IT and skills to develop invasive malware, hitting foes with cyberattacks meant to cause maximum damage and collect intelligence. Obviously today’s wars are not conventional battles fought on the ground.
So next time when you get scared by Israel’s and Iran’s puffing up, remember that a bark can sometimes be worse than the bite!