As of Monday, Vladimir Putin has officially been reelected to his fifth term as President of the Russian Federation, making him Russia’s longest-ruling autocrat. While Putin’s reelection was met with congratulations from Eastern allies such as China, India, and North Korea, the West expressed more of an outcry. To the West, Putin’s reelection likely signifies a harsher conflict in Ukraine and a growing threat from the East.
In the recent election, Putin won in a landslide victory. However, the election was heavily controlled by the Kremlin; all of Putin’s rivals were imprisoned or prohibited from running so as to allow for Putin to secure his title, once again, as President.
It has been over two-years since Russia launched its “special military operation” in Ukraine. In these years, Ukraine has endured an offensive war under the guise of reunifying the former Soviet Union. By June of 2022, Russian troops had already secured 20% of Ukrainian territory, displacing millions of people from their homes. In April, 2023 the Ukrainian refugee crisis became the largest refugee crisis in Europe since World War II.
From the start of Russia’s military aggression, Western powers and Western intergovernmental organizations have offered support to Ukraine. Since Putin has been known to hold off on his more controversial policies until after elections, Putin’s reelection could have grave implications on the war in Ukraine, thereby causing strain on the West’s resources.
NATO and the EU have condemned Russia’s “aggression against Ukraine” and are beginning to discuss Ukraine’s possible membership in both organizations. If Ukraine becomes a NATO member, NATO allies would be bound to “protect and defend (Ukraine’s) territory and populations.” Therefore, Putin’s launching of more wide-spread, violent operations in Ukraine might catalyze Ukraine’s NATO membership, and lead to a war on Ukrainian soil between Russia and the NATO alliance.
Since 2022, Ukraine has become the top recipient of U.S. foreign aid. In total, the Biden administration has provided around $75 billion in assistance to Ukraine. This has included financial, humanitarian, and military aid. But since October 7th, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict has taken the world’s attention off Ukraine. The U.S. has since begun providing aid to Gaza and the West Bank, leaving less for Ukraine. Putin’s reelection could amplify military operations in Ukraine, which in turn could potentially put a strain on U.S. aid. The theory is that the U.S. could be spread too thin to be able to support victims of two simultaneous wars.
Additionally, Putin’s reelection reinforces his Eastern alliances, which could worsen the already-polarized geopolitical battlefield.
When Putin won his reelection, Chinese President Xi Jinping was quick to offer his congratulations. The leaders’ close political ties are evidenced by their February, 2022 “no limits” partnership, which stresses unconditional support and cooperation between the two countries.
By securing his presidential title once again, Putin is promising to maintain and even build on the Sino-Russian alliance. The alliance poses a grave threat to the West, and its intensification could exacerbate an already-brewing “Second Cold War” between the U.S. and China.