Morocco’s economic growth is forecast to reach 3.3% in Q4 2023, after hitting 2.8% in Q3 of the same year, said Morocco’s Statistics and Forecasts Office (HCP) in its newest report on Thursday.
This performance was most likely due to the resilience of secondary industries in the face of an unfavorable international environment, and to the continued improvement in services.
In the first quarter of 2024, national economic growth should reach +2.4%, driven mainly by the dynamic extractive and chemical industries and the strengthening of non-market services.
The value of domestic exports and imports of goods and services likely increased by 15.5% and 15.2% respectively in annualized terms in the fourth quarter of 2023, compared with +8.1% and +9.3% a quarter earlier.
Imports of goods in value terms are estimated to have fallen by 0.6% in the fourth quarter of 2023, mainly as a result of lower prices, in line with the decline in most international raw material prices.
Inflation figures were projected to have fallen in the fourth quarter of 2023, continuing the deceleration trend of the last three quarters. Annual growth in the consumer price index was believed to have slowed to +3.9%, after +4.9% in the third quarter and +6.8% in the second. This capped decline would have been due to a less pronounced rise in food prices, which stood at +8.1% year-on-year, after +10.7% in the third quarter, and to a year-on-year increase in non-food prices at the same rate as in the previous quarter (i.e., +1%).
Agricultural activity is said to have slowed down in the fourth quarter of 2023, mainly due to the persistent water deficit and unseasonably high temperatures. In annual variation, agricultural value added was predicted to have grown by 5.2%, compared to +6.9% in the first quarter. The reduction in non-grain crop production was most noticeable with respect to seasonal vegetables and fruit crops, which were affected by lower yields.
Non-agricultural activity showed resilience, posting growth of 3.2% in the fourth quarter of 2023, after +2.7% and +2.1% in the third and second quarters, respectively.
The rate of increase in money supply saw a slowdown during the fourth quarter of 2023, rising by 5.3% year-on-year, following a 7.5% increase a quarter earlier.