While French President Emmanuel Macron is losing credibility and his popularity dwindles by the day, Marine Le Pen–leader of “Rassemblement National” (RN) far-right wing party–is gaining ground in the polls since entering the institutional mainstream, said Financial Times.
Since his re-election a year and a half ago, Macron has failed to identify a clear agenda, as the loss of his legislative majority restricts his capacity to accomplish his lofty aspirations for reform, and his government has failed to achieve many of its purported goals.
Political analysts believe that if they fail to show that the government can provide effective solutions to the major issues, they risk opening the door to a vote of dissent, which may drive Le Pen to power.
Voters may well decide to reject Le Pen–as they did the last three times she ran for the top post–if they doubt her ability to lead or fear the consequences of her nationalist and anti-immigration agenda, as well as her economic policies for France and the EU.
Polls show that Macron’s public support has never been lower, and his authority has begun to erode, even among politicians in his camp.
French presidents often seek to build their legacy on the world stage, and while Macron has influenced EU affairs, his ability to play the role of statesman has become compromised after conflicts in Ukraine and Israel that have upended the global political order.
As public opinion turned against immigration, the administration spent months devising a strategy that took from bipartisan solutions in an attempt to fix the flaws of the so-called “concurrent” system. This strategy included a series of measures to tighten asylum rules and facilitate the deportation of illegal immigrants and migrants convicted of crimes or posing a terrorist threat, but it also included a more flexible, business-friendly policy for granting work permits to undocumented migrants working in high-demand employment sectors.
The law was approved in Parliament in a tumultuous late-night vote, but in a rare sign of dissent, nearly a quarter of the 251 MPs in Macron’s alliance voted against the plan.
“He knows very well that if she succeeds him, everyone will blame him for that…it’s his nightmare,” says François Patriat, a veteran senator close to the President.
Le Pen claimed to have won an ideological battle, while left-wing politicians, NGOs, and trade unions accused Macron of caving in to xenophobic policies.
So far, Macron’s Prime Minister Élisabeth Borne has used the “49.3” clause 22 times, mainly on budget measures, and survived all the no-confidence votes because the opposition was too divided to prevail.
Vincent Martigny, professor of politics at the University of Nice, warns that this may not always be the case. “We’re at the point where opposition parties might unite to topple the government because they think they have something to gain.”
Domestic and international political analysts praised his triumph, which came shortly after Donald Trump‘s ascendancy to the presidency and the UK’s decision on Brexit, as proof that populism could be countered effectively.
However, Le Pen’s appeal to French voters has proven to be remarkably strong. She advocated for the needs of low-income individuals and sought help in rural regions where people feel abandoned when schools, clinics, and post offices disappear.
Nonetheless, Macron’s lead over Le Pen shrank from 33 points in 2017 to 17 points last year. The two-round voting system once again aided many left-wing supporters who supported him in the second round solely to stop Le Pen, whom they perceived as a larger threat.
However, at the end of June, a week of riots broke out in low-income suburbs, with the far right seizing these events as proof that uncontrolled immigration threatens the security of French citizens.
Le Pen and Jordan Bardella, who heads the “RN” party, climbed to third and fourth place in the polls of the most popular political figures in France.
“If Le Pen were elected, it would be a collective failure,” says Bruno Le Maire, Minister of Finance and the Economy.