The Washington Institute for Near East Policy has published an analysis briefing paper advising the US government to carefully manage its handling of Algeria while maintaining recognition of Morocco’s sovereignty over the Sahara.
In a brief entitled “Balancing U.S. relations in North Africa without undermining the Abraham Accords,” analysts from the Institute recommended that the Biden administration tread carefully in engaging Algeria, since preserving UN negotiations on the Sahara and protecting Morocco’s crucial relations with Washington and Israel are paramount to U.S. regional interests.
They suggested that the United States must adopt a “nuanced” approach to resolving the Sahara conflict that involves the recognition of Morocco’s sovereignty over the southern territory while supporting the United Nations-led process and “leveraging U.S. influence to tamp down hostilities and return to dialogue.”
Such an approach can help facilitate “active engagement with Algeria without eroding Morocco’s relations with Israel that serve the broader American strategic interests in the region,” the analysts said.
They urged the United States to use “caution in navigating its evolving ties with Algiers” in order to ease tensions with Morocco and prevent further military escalation in the Sahara. They noted that “Rabat already appears to be diversifying its foreign partners amid growing regional skepticism about Washington’s reliability,” betting on China and Russia’s strong push in Africa.
This includes China’s new investment in the Kingdom, especially in the electric vehicle industry, as well as Morocco’s 2022 memorandum of understanding on peaceful nuclear cooperation with Russian company Rosatom.
The analysts suggested that officials in Rabat might well interpret US outreach to Algeria and the Polisario as a deviation from the US’s obligations under the tripartite Abraham Accords agreement signed in 2020.
Moreover, given the depth of Algeria’s ties with Russia and China, “U.S. efforts to engage Algiers do not guarantee that it will shift away from Moscow and Beijing or grant concessions toward de-escalation with Rabat.”
Finally, the analysts suggested that strong diplomatic relations between Morocco and Israel can contribute to humanitarian and post-war reconstruction efforts in Gaza.