Morocco’s Forecasts and Statistics Office (HCP) said that economy growth is expected to hit 3.3% in 2023 versus 1.3% in 2022, while inflation would reach 1.9% instead of 5% in 2022.
The figures are in line with the projections by the World Bank (3.5% in 2023 and 3.7% in 2024) as per its latest World Economic prospects.
According to HCP Secretary General Ayachi Khellaf, who was speaking on behalf of Head of HCP Ahmed Lahlimi, the national economic forecasts for 2023 are based on a very difficult international juncture, shaped by ongoing geopolitical tensions and high prices, leading to a slowdown in the volume of world trade, which is expected to grow by only 1.6% after 4% in 2022.
During a press conference, Khellaf made several forward projections:
The budget deficit is expected to be around 5.2% of GDP in 2023 instead of 3.9% in 2022.
The trade deficit will be around 20% of GDP, which is lower than 2022.
The overall public debt ratio would stand at 83.2% of GDP in 2023 compared to 82.5% in 2022
World demand for Morocco would, consequently, post a decrease in its growth rate to 3.2% in 2023 against 7.6% in 2022
The primary sector is anticipated to grow in value added by 9% in 2023 instead of the 15.6% decline for 2022.
The construction sector is estimated to grow at a rate of 1.2% instead of a drop of 0.4% in 2022.
The mining sector is expected to recover by an estimated 2.8%, after a decline of 8.4% in 2022, due to the expected increase in international demand for fertilizers.
Industrial sector activity is supposed to grow by 1.9% in 2023 instead of 1.3% in 2022.
The Treasury’s debt ratio should thus increase to 70.8% of GDP, made up of 54.6% of GDP in domestic debt and 16.3% in external debt.