The second editions of the Middle East Green Initiative Summit and Saudi Green Initiative Forum, spearheaded by Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, will run concurrently with COP27 that will be held in Sharam El Sheikh in November. This sparked debate on energy transition in the Middle East, specifically, and the Arab World, more generally.
In an interview granted to Jeune Afrique, Philippe Pétriat, Lecturer at the University of Paris-I-Panthéon-Sorbonne and researcher at the French Research Center of The Arabian Peninsula (CEFREPA), weighed in on “apparent contradictions in the climate geopolitics of the Gulf States.”
The expert mentioned that the Gulf States have already announced their plans for an energetic transition, citing UAE and Saudi Arabia’s aim to reach carbon neutrality for 2050 and 2060, respectively. On this matter, he stated that the “timeframe set seems quite attainable” for UAE but maybe not for Saudi Arabia citing demographic differences, says Jeune Afrique. Pétriat stated that this energetic transition concerns primarily concerns the countries above due to their resources because of their sovereign or semi-private funds, other countries less so.
On what motivates this energetic transition in the region, Pétriat stated that “the risks associated with global warming are extreme for the Maghreb-Middle East zone, and especially for the Gulf: the infrastructure is not designed to withstand a sharp rise in temperature, the rise in water levels will have a considerable impact since most cities are located at sea level … In addition, even key renewable energies, such as solar, require much water.”
Jeune Afrique reports that “strong competition of a well-established market” is another reason for this transition. “We often imagine the oil and gas market dominated by the Gulf countries, which, faced with strong demand, can rule the roost, whereas it is increasingly competitive: countries such as the United Arab Emirates find themselves competing for Chinese markets in particular. And OPEC no longer carries the same weight as in 1973,” says Pétriat.
Suppose the energy transition undertaken by Saudi Arabia is a smokescreen for climate geopolitics. In that case, Pétriat says, “I think there is both a willingness on the part of MBS to make a transition to renewable energy and a real economic strategy coupled with a communication lever.” He cites companies like Aramco and Acwa Power investing in renewable energy development plans, particularly in Morocco.
Speaking of Morocco, the expert states that it is “the most advanced and attractive country” for Gulf companies to invest in, saying that “all they have to do is cross the Strait of Gibraltar to get to the European market. Everyone has been rushing to Morocco for over a decade since the entire financial infrastructure is present there.”
As for other North African states, except Egypt, Pétriat explains that “Algeria has had a lot of trouble convincing investors since 2019. Moreover, Algerian gas production is already at its peak, and companies cannot slow down or produce more: the fields are not very well maintained, there are large investment needs, and domestic production captures more than two-thirds of what is produced, so the surplus is almost non-existent.”
He mentions that “the Algerian legal framework is not very attractive either. Tunisia is not much more attractive – in the energy sector at least – because of the financial crisis and instability it is experiencing.”