A rapprochement is underway between Russia and China. This can be explained by the Russia-Ukraine crisis, on one hand, and the rising tensions between China and Taiwan, on the other hand. How real is this rapprochement? One thing is for sure, Russia showed its support for China, and China did the same. But are there any limits to this friendliness? Are they ready to take it to the next level and become allies who will have each other’s backs in wartime? If that is the case, how would this alliance affect their ties with other countries that may not have good relations with either China or Russia? This comes in light of President Xi Jinping’s statements at the UN’s 77th General Assembly that adopted a tone of neutrality encouraging talks between Russia and Ukraine.
Chinese and Russian Relations
The relations between Russia and China relations date back to the 17th century. Russia ceded to China the upper and middle reaches of the Amur. In exchange, Russia got to keep the territory of Transbaikalia and the coast of the Sea of Okhotsk, with China promising not to settle in the Albazin land.
In 1896, Russia and China concluded the first treaty of alliance. This treaty was about granting military aid in case of Japanese aggression. In 1911, the Xinhai Revolution began in China. Together with the fall of the Manchu dynasty of Qing, the Manchu rule in Outer Mongolia ended. In 1912, it became independent with Russia being the guarantor of its independence. In 1917, a revolution erupted in Russia. In the west, Russia lost many territories, including Finland, Poland, Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia. In the east, two sections of the Sino-Russian border were divided by Outer Mongolia.
The URSS and the Communist Chinese Republic ties were not close despite the fact that they were adopting the same ideology. Still, their approach to international relations and national policies was quite different. In 2002, Russia and China signed a treaty on good neighbourliness, friendship and cooperation. Since the early 2000s, Russia and China have conducted joint military and anti-terrorist exercises. Bilateral cooperation and trade turnover has been expanding ever since. In 2013, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Moscow on his first state visit.
China has been Moscow’s largest trading partner for 12 years, according to the Chinese Ministry of Commerce. The bilateral relationship, however, shows a “huge asymmetry,” with Russia being only Beijing’s 18th largest trading partner. China is also Ukraine’s largest trading partner, but the country accounts for only 0.3% of Beijing’s trade. Ukraine supplies China with raw materials, including iron. It is on the route of the New Silk Roads, the ambitious infrastructure project launched by Beijing under the impetus of Xi Jinping. However, because of Beijing’s support for Russia, Ukraine may be “less inclined to do business with China and support its projects”. The Silk Roads project, which crosses Russia, is likely to be “heavily penalized” by Western sanctions against Moscow.
Heavily dependent on Ukraine for food supplies, China is now looking to diversify its supply sources. Coincidentally or not, Beijing announced the lifting of restrictions on its imports of Russian wheat on the first day of the ongoing Russian-Ukrainian crisis. The agreement, which was concluded at the beginning of February 2021, allows imports from all Russian regions when it used to be only seven regions before.
China has the second largest defence budget in the world, after the United States (740 billion dollars planned for 2022). This increase is also much higher than the expected growth in GDP (5.5% for 2022). It comes against the backdrop of Russia’s war in Ukraine, which Beijing has so far refused to condemn saying it “understands” Moscow’s concerns for its security.
As for Russia, it is the second military power worldwide, with a military budget of 154 billion dollars, which makes Russian defence rank in third place. In fact, Russian military spending increased by 72% since the annexation of Crimea in 2014, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI).
During a visit by Russian President Vladimir Putin to Beijing in early February, both countries spoke out against NATO expansion. Chinese President Xi Jinping, for his part, has won the support of his neighbour in denouncing the “negative influence on peace and stability” of the United States in the Asia-Pacific region. Beijing has been vocal about Taiwan, which it considers a province of China thus reserving the right to seize it by force. In the past year, China has increased its incursions into Taiwan’s air defence identification zone, particularly in response to visits to the island by senior US officials. In May, Xi Jinping ordered all military units to conduct “combat-oriented exercises.”
Russia and the Rest of the World
It should be noted that no African, Latin American or Asian country has condemned Russia’s actions in Ukraine. This means that Russia is not isolated and it continues its economic, political, and military activities. For example, with Iran, Russia is weaving new economic and energy relations. During the summit between Russian, Iranian and Turkish presidents aimed to discuss the terrorism threat in Syria, Iran and Russia signed an agreement on Russian investment in the oil and gas sectors of Iran with a budget of 40 billion dollars. Furthermore, Moscow launched on August 9th the remote sensing satellite Khayyam, on behalf of Tehran, as aid and collaboration in times of economic stifling against the Persian state.
As for Turkey, which plays the role of mediator in the Russian-Ukrainian conflict, its relations with Russia have been complex as they share regional rivalities and compete for economic and strategic interests. In recent years, they have confronted each other in Syria, where they have supported opposing camps and in the war between Armenia, close to Moscow, and Azerbaijan, close to Turkey. In Syria, the two powers have sponsored ceasefire agreements in the Idlib region, which is outside the control of Damascus and where there are pro-Turkish fighters. The two countries also have different takes on the conflict in Libya too. Political positions make the two states sometimes rivals, especially when it comes to interests as they both try to consolidate their presence more in Africa, whether in North or in Sub-Saharan Africa.
The Russian bear returns to Africa after a long hibernation, which dates from the fall of the USSR. This return was felt when the Russians arrived in the Central Africa Republic in 2014 to replace France, which failed to restore order to the country, and in Mali to restore the rule of law. During this period of the Ukrainian crisis, the Russian Minister of Foreign Affairs toured Africa, starting with Egypt, Ethiopia, Congo Brazzaville and Uganda, to strengthen, on one hand, Russia’s presence in Africa, and to discuss the future of trade, especially in the agricultural field, with Russia and Ukraine, on the other hand. China has become an essential partner for several African countries, such as Algeria, Djibouti, South Africa, Guinea, Egypt, Libya, Equatorial Guinea, Zambia, Congo Brazzaville, Angola and Sudan, especially in terms of Chinese direct investment, in return, the majority of these states supply China with gas and oil. Africa is becoming a disputed arena between several powers, big and small.
China and the West
China is considered the first market from which the European Union imports goods and services in 2018, with 394 billion euros. It is also its second partner in terms of exports after the United States, with 210 billion euros, which puts the European Union in deficit with China by 184 billion euros.
As a result, it is clear that China is not ready to harm its relations with European countries, especially since the Chinese Prime Minister has announced that his country’s goal is to achieve 5.5% growth soon. The country has no interest in ruining its relations with the West by helping Russia circumvent the sanctions. At the same time, it cannot turn its back on its neighbour, which seems to be an ally in its economic war against the West, and against its intervention in Taiwan.
The relations between China and Australia went downhill with the start of the spread of Covid 19 in 2020. More specifically, when the Australian Foreign Minister declared the government’s intention to launch an international investigation into the real causes of the virus. This increased China’s anger which went on to suspend several trade agreements with Australia, bearing in mind that China’s share of Australian wine exports is about 40%, or $1.2 billion. Moreover, tensions are growing after the conclusion of the agreement of AUKUS to acquire a fleet of nuclear-powered submarines last September. This means that China would have more of the NATO army near its borders.
The relations between China and Japan are affected by the Russian-Ukrainian crisis. The tension grew after the Chinese and Russian warplanes neared its airspace in May 2022. Adding to that, Japan was hosting the leaders of “the Quad grouping”, which is an alliance between the USA, the United Kingdom, Australia and India, against China. Adding to that, is its position concerning China and the Taiwan question. In a meeting, Japan issued diplomatic protests over China’s firing of missiles into its exclusive economic zone during the drills in the military exercises, which saw Chinese warplanes and navy ships cross the middle zone of the Taiwan Strait that has long been a buffer between the sides in August 2022. Following that, Washington and Tokyo have been advocating for a free and open Indo-Pacific region to counter China’s assertiveness. On the economic level, in July 2022, China exported 15.9 billion dollars and imported 15.7 billion dollars from Japan, resulting in a positive trade balance of 162 million. Between July 2021 and July 2022, China’s exports increased by 2.54 billion dollars (19%) from 13.3 billion to 15.9 billion dollars, while imports decreased by -1.59 billion dollars (-9.17%) from 17.3 billion dollars to 15.7 billion dollars.
China’s relations with India are under stress too, knowing that India is part of the Quad group, and they have historical problems on the borders in the Himalayas region. In addition to the fact that China has great relations with Pakistan, an enemy of India. Even with those issues, the economic relations increased between the two countries in the last year, compared to the covid period. The trade jumped from 87.65 billion dollars in 2020 to 125.62 billion dollars in 2021. In the previous year, India faced a big deficit in its trade with China, estimated at 69.56 billion dollars. Chinese exports reached 97.58 billion dollars and the imports 28.03 billion dollars.
Clans are in the making. Russia and China are trying to establish cooperation between them and other countries in the region, like Turkey and Iran. China’s relation with its Western neighbours is deteriorating, but its relations with the EU are not affected. As for Russia, the government is looking for new partners and to strengthen old partnerships, such as with Iran and some African countries. Russia is surrounded by its allies like North Korea and Iran, in addition to China, which remains to be proven, in case a war breaks out between Russia and NATO. China has on its side North Korea, Pakistan, and maybe Russia.
The international scene resembles a pressure cooker, Western countries are facing their two big enemies, Russia and China, who are seeking more cooperation and extending their partnerships. Moreover, it is worth noting that they are also superpowers military-wise, the second and third military world powers. Despite all that, they are far from being allies, as stated by the Chinese Defence Minister Wei Fenghe “the development of Sino-Russian relations is a partnership, not an alliance. It is not aimed against third parties.”